Low Expectations: Graduation Rates

All sorts of questions about the efficacy of high schools are in the air these days.  This leads to discussions of issues like  dropout rates, graduation rates, and success (or lack thereof) at college preparation. At Downeast Schoolhouse we’re trying to pick up on these themes and bring them to your attention.

Now we are shocked — shocked, I tell you — to find (through this post) that some many of the states are (in Joanne Jacobs’ words), “gaming” high school graduation rates. (We urge you to bookmark the superb Joanne Jacobs blog; she does a great job of reporting on education issues.)

She points to the new Education Trust report “Counting on Graduation”.  The subtitle of the press release seems to say it all: ” Most states are setting low expectations for the improvement of high school graduation rates.” (press release, full report) And how!

Under the NCLB law, states are left to set their own graduation rate goals.  The result is that a lot of states are not being very ambitious.  For all the bitching about NCLB, it certainly seems that without coercion the states would not push themselves very hard.

Here’s what may be the most shocking part of the report:

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Pay special attention to that last column!

Now as obviously poor as these states’ expectations are, will it shock you to see what, say Maine, has as its goals?

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That’s right, Maine’s graduation rate goal for the class of 2007 is 64%.  Only six states have lower targets than this.  It turns out that Maine’s goal is to have a 75% graduation rate by 2014 (the date by which under NCLB all states are to have all students at a 100% proficiency level — discussed recently here). Click here to see the DOE 2006 t0 2014 targets.

Given that recent numbers indicate that, at least by some measure, Maine is already in the 80% range for actual graduations (2005-06 data), this goal seems quite modest, if not positively retrograde!

In what way, we wonder, is Maine s-t-r-e-t-c-h-i-n-g to meet a goal?  This report, and a look at Maine’s goals and numbers, suggests that, as with many other states, Maine is “gaming” its graduation rates.

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