Election time often gets to be prediction time. You certainly see a lot of predictions. You read “We project that” a certain candidate will win, that a certain question “will undoubtedly be defeated,” and so on. Most such predictions aren’t worth the electrons they’re written in. I try to refrain from such myself.
But here’s a prediction that’s a real cast iron plunger. You can put your money on it — all of it, even the savings for college (ha!). It’s in the familiar “If…, then…” form.
If consolidation repeal fails, that is, if question 3 loses, look for a major push for a state-wide teacher’s contract (with, of course, regional cost-of-living adjustments).
Why?
Two points.
First, the State will have successfully asserted, and then defended, its primacy in all matters educational, and all in the name of saving money. The bureaucrats will have free reign. Such a move will be justified, once again, as “saving money.” After all it ‘s so expensive and time consuming to negotiate all those separate contracts! Here, let us do it!
Locally-elected school governance entities — that is, school boards — may as well hang up this sign on the meeting room door: Gone Fishin’ — Indefinitely!
Second, it will be a payback to the MEA; in fact it’s the big payback. There’s been some interesting speculation of late as to the relative silence of the MEA on consolidation. It’s been pointed out that once their jobs were assured, consolidation was just fine with them. It’s also noted that salaries and benefits within consolidated districts are tending to rise. (This runs counter to the pre-consolidation claptrap that these costs would not rise.)
But there’s more. A statewide contract will be the next step in this progression.
“What’s in it for them?” you ask. Everything!
When the locals negotiate, they’re torn between holding expenses (and thus, taxes) down — salaries and benefits typically are 80% or more of district budgets – and at the same time treating district employees (their friends and neighbors) fairly. That tension is beneficial to all.
But when bureaucrats start negotiating a statewide contract, this tension is gone. Where’s the pressure? Why not give the employees what they want? Who will they (the bureaucrats) answer to?
More election thoughts tomorrow, when we examine What’s Truly at Stake!
Amplification and Elaboration: We seem to have two post titles running here. Some people read ” Prediction: If Consolidation Wins, Statewide Contracts Next” and some, including me, get my earlier, catchier title, “Prediction: MEA Goat Grab!”. The mysteries of publishing on the Interwebs!
In any case, “goat grab” is a term used by our soldiers down range when referring to the hospitable local custom of a large shared meal, typically including a whole roast goat, eaten with the hands. Hence, “goat grab”.
In this context, it referred to the parcelling out of the spoils of a statewide labor negotiation.
What did you think it meant?